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  • alkg
    08-13 08:41 PM
    see the paragraph in bold letters.................

    Greenspan Sees Bottom
    In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
    August 14, 2008
    WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
    In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
    "Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
    A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
    An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
    "Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
    At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
    Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
    His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
    "It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
    The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
    His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
    Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
    But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
    Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
    In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
    Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
    Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.

    He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.

    He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news





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  • arunmohan
    04-06 12:44 PM
    Friends ,
    Count me in,I live in Tucson.





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  • VisaVisa
    09-08 11:08 PM
    Me and my wife are on pending I-485 AOS. Mine is employment based (EB3) and my wife's is derivative.

    I-140 is approved.

    I work here on EAD. My wife had to travel to India urgently. She applied for Advance Parole, but had to leave before she received the Advance Parole.

    Now she wants to return back, but as she has not yet received Advance Parole, will she need to apply for Visa?
    Or is it better to wait for Advance pArole decision?
    If Visa, under what category?

    Thanks





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  • santb1975
    12-24 09:33 PM
    ^^^



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  • a_tyagi26
    02-02 12:10 PM
    Assume:

    This mean from the date this bill gets enacted, one should stay in USA for five years continuously.

    It's impossible, atleast for me. I can't even think that I won't be able to go to India for 5 years. It would be a torture on my soul. This kind of clause works for an un-documented immigrant, who don't have a choice to leave but not for legal immigrant.

    What my company tell me to go to another country say some Brazil to implement project and infrastructure and I had to stay 2 months? Then I have to start afresh ?

    I believe you need more than 6months of stay for it to be called as continous presence. Anyone shed some light.





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  • johnamit
    07-18 09:47 AM
    this window of opportunity to file 485 till August 17th will provide some interim benefits to most of us but we are destined to see long long wait before 485 approval. So I suggest we keep doing our efforts to get achieve other goals like recapture of unused visa number and things of that nature. We need a course of action to raise our voice which could include interaction with congresswoman, rally, letters from Hitech industry leaders and other things of this nature. I am hoping Core will come up with a plan soon.



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  • jfredr
    08-10 03:29 PM
    Reforms To Visa Programs For Highly Skilled Workers.

    IMPROVING EXISTING IMMIGRATION
    22. The Administration Will Reform And Expedite Background Checks For Immigration. Current mechanisms for conducting immigration background checks are backed up, slowing processing times and endangering national security. The Administration is investing substantial new funds to address the backlog, and the FBI and USCIS are working together on a variety of projects designed to streamline existing processes so as to reduce waiting times without sacrificing security.
    23. The President Is Directing The Department Of Homeland Security And The Social Security Administration To Study The Technical And Recordkeeping Reforms Necessary To Guarantee That Illegal Aliens Do Not Earn Credit In Our Social Security System For Illegal Work. Currently, aliens who make Social Security payments while working here legally can continue to accrue credits even if they overstay their visa. Improved data-sharing can lay the foundation for eventual Congressional action to eliminate this practice (which proved an obstacle to comprehensive reform). The relevant agencies are ordered to report to the President with a detailed plan for eliminating the problem.





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  • nemu777
    09-17 03:38 PM
    Hi Vani,
    I applied for H1B through a NJ based consultancy company for year 2010. I haven't got any receipt number though my employer claims to have fedexed my application on April 6th. Have u been able to get in touch with USCIS regarding your application. Pls update.



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  • cox
    April 3rd, 2005, 08:39 PM
    The filter is an excellent suggestion, Gary - I prefer to do things in-camera. I did not take later shots, so I can't sandwich them. The reds were extremely short lived, and clouds were moving in (and it was freezing), but I'll remember to get a couple of different exposures for next time.

    Thanks for the recommendation, QJ. I'll get out my map and find it.

    I'll try your dual processing suggestion, Kevin, but my PS skills are weak compared to some of our resident masters here. ;)





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  • arun_psu
    12-08 10:53 PM
    I have the following visa stampings F1(1998 Chennai), H1B(2002 Chennai), F1(2006 Matamaros) and am currently on H1B (not the 2002 company). Am I eligible for stamping in one of the border posts?

    thanks
    arun



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  • krishmunn
    04-07 12:12 PM
    When one should feel to donate, they can donate. Doesn't mean that you donated, means everyone should donate.
    It is about donation, not Haptaa-vasooli.....

    So, before taunting anyone you should understand the meaning of "Donation".

    Hold on .... I am NOT taunting any one . Even I did not contribute for many months . I had a major conflict with many IV members including Papu regarding some of IVs objectives.

    While I still hold my views , I can see IVs effort in other directions as well and that made me contribute to specific efforts.


    Remember , I am using the word "contribute" and not "donate" . That is your word.

    It is definitely up to you when you get convinced.





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  • immi_seeker
    08-08 01:43 PM
    Anybody had any experience at phoenix center with infopass appointment ?



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  • number30
    04-15 11:20 AM
    Hi,
    I am on H1B without job and no paystubs.
    My employer has been trying to find a project for me but till now he couldnt get anything.
    Its been 6 months alreay since I am on H1B visa.
    He made me modify my actual experience to include fake projects .
    Now I am thinking of filing a complaint to DOL.
    I have my H1B petition and offer letter from the employer.
    But I am worried that if I file complaint ,my employer will threaten me telling that I faked my experience and submitted fake resumes.
    What should I do? Will DOL take any action against me?
    Any success stories of DOL complaint filing?

    Can you explain what did you fake and where did you fake? In most of the cases which invovles employee augmentation kind of jobs , consulting company is the one which submits the resume. So you may not know what he is putting on your resume.





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  • rolrblade
    03-11 01:34 PM
    I don't understand in what cases consulate holds a person's passport. What if the applicant wants to return back home country instead of waiting in Canada?

    You have a right to ask for your passport back. You can always state the logic that in the case of emergency, will the consulate provide the passport back at a moments notice? probably not!

    Also, a passport is the property of the issuing government and no other government entitiy / individual has a right to hold it. I wouldnt state it in these terms though :) .... the emergency travel reason should suffice!



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  • Lydia
    06-15 01:36 PM
    can you guys suggest how to proceed with my cases... where i am totally screwed up.
    When I started to work in usa I was working for an employer in NJ after an year I got a better job offer and started to work for another employer(for whom I have been working for last 2 years).
    Last Month I applied for my I140 with current employer work experience letter and co-worker letter (of my ex-employer in NJ). Now that I have an RFE for my I140 requesting me to send employer experience letter of my ex-employer. When I called up my ex-employer he was rude to me and firmly denied to provide any letter and hanged up the phone. Due to this RFE I am not able to proceed with my I485. Please let me know how to proceed...Thanking you all in advance.





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  • vishwak
    08-13 10:51 AM
    History:


    Question for fellow IV members :
    By merely renewing my wife's H4, while she was still working on EAD, did she automatically get switched to H4?


    Can someone shed some light on this: Am I right or wrong?
    Does this affect her or mine, pending 485/AOS ?


    Hmmm.....I think she is not supposed to work when on H4. As always status in US is taken by 2 ways.

    Either Change of Status in US or Status when you enter/re-enter to US.

    As your wife recent was change of Status in US which was H4. She is not supposed to work. But I believe lot of people work and there might not be an impact on your AOS.

    Lets wait until Experts speak.......



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  • sertasheep
    05-24 01:52 PM
    Great job, Salil. Can you share your experience working with the press? Was it easy getting the newspaper to carry this article, or did you have to pursue this for a long time? The reason I am asking this is, its hard for one to determine what the media will print. They may take one quote from you but might use it in a different context. I came very close to quoting on Seattle Times but stayed put as the reporter wanted my opinion on the "other" current debate that's going on, and she was not willing to carry an article on Legal immigration alone.





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  • telekinesis
    09-05 02:40 AM
    No dissing the Pixel Stretch, ya'll betta recognize, my Splash would look even cr@pier without the pixel stretch!





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  • gc_kaavaali
    12-24 01:23 PM
    Congratulations to everyone!!!...Nothing is impossible if we are united..





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    05-14 09:34 PM
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    joshraj
    10-03 11:54 AM
    Filed: July 27
    Center: Neb
    RD: Not Yet
    FP: Not Yet
    EAD: Not Yet

    I140 - Pending at Nebraska



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